Written by
Mike Smeltzer
Alexandra Karppi
Key Findings
Democratic governance in the Nations in Transit region declined for the 20th consecutive year in 2023. The continued assault on basic freedoms by Eurasian autocracies and the deterioration of democratic institutions in countries ranked as Hybrid Regimes—those with a mix of autocratic and democratic features—easily outweighed the modest gains by European democracies over the past year. Of the 29 countries covered in this report, 10 suffered declines in their Democracy Score, while just five earned improvements.
A geopolitical reordering is underway in the region stretching from Central Europe to Central Asia. Moscow’s ongoing attempt to destroy Ukraine and the Azerbaijani regime’s inhumane conquest of Nagorno-Karabakh demonstrated once again the deadly consequences of autocracy’s expansion. These and other events in recent years have accelerated a geopolitical reordering in the region, with countries sorting themselves into two opposing blocs: those committed to a liberal, democratic order and those that violently reject it.
Autocracies have continued to deepen their repression while cooperating to upend international norms. Democracy Scores declined in four of the eight countries classified as Consolidated Authoritarian Regimes, as dictatorial leaders closed off the remaining space for dissent and worked to extend their rule indefinitely. These regimes have actively supported one another in evading sanctions, crushing domestic opposition, and blunting any accountability for military aggression and other violations of international law. In effect they are creating a new regional order that better suits their interests, and democracies have yet to muster an adequate response.
Although most democracies upheld their standards at home, Poland’s ability to recover from backsliding will be crucial for the future of the wider region. Four of the five countries that registered improvements in their Democracy Score for 2023 were already classified as Semi-Consolidated or Consolidated Democracies, reinforcing the broader polarization of the region into democratic and autocratic camps. Poland’s score declined due to unprecedented electoral manipulation by the ruling party, but an opposition coalition managed to secure victory—amid extremely high voter turnout—by campaigning on respect for the rule of law and individual rights. The result cleared the way for a new government to attempt to correct years of institutional damage under the former leadership.
Hybrid Regimes were caught between the democratic and autocratic blocs, with some on a clearly antidemocratic trajectory. In this large and heterogenous group of 11 countries, five experienced an overall decline in their Democracy Scores, and just one—Ukraine—managed to achieve an improvement. Hybrid Regimes can be divided into those on a democratic path, those that are increasingly authoritarian, and a third group that seems trapped in a pattern of partisan oscillation with no lasting structural change. International partners will need to tailor their policies accordingly to achieve resilient democratic institutions in each setting.
To counter the gains that authoritarians have made over the last 20 years, democratic governments must broaden their approach to democracy promotion. In addition to their traditional focus on free elections, rights protection, trade pacts, and institutional reform, they must be ready to invest more substantially in military preparedness and provide Ukraine with the arms necessary to defeat Moscow’s invasion of its sovereign territory. Failure to do so would only perpetuate the current negative trends and make it more costly to check authoritarian expansion in the future, both in this region and around the world.
This booklet is a summary of findings for the 2024 edition of
Nations in Transit. The complete analysis, including detailed reports on all countries, can be found at FreedomHouse.org.